Where the Granbury Market Stands This Fall

As we move into the fall, a lot of people around here are asking the same questions. With everything going on in the world and mortgage rates climbing again, where are we really at in the market, and how should we plan?

Whether you’re local in Granbury or up in Fort Worth, Weatherford, or the surrounding region, here are the important details so you can understand where things stand, why we’re here, and what to watch for a shift.

One number tells us which way the market moves. The basic premise comes down to a single figure: when interest rates climb above 6.64%, the real estate market tends to cool significantly. We’ve watched it play out over the last couple of years. As soon as rates push past that number, the market cools, and the further below it drops, the more the market warms back up. Earlier this year, rates dipped down near 6%, and the market really began to warm up. Then things changed.

The Iran conflict has kept rates elevated. Things were going really well at the start of the year, with rates right around 6%. Then the Iran conflict kicked off and caused real problems for interest rates, and I’ve reiterated that several times. There’s always been a possible resolution on the table, a memorandum of peace, talk of a ceasefire, but a resolution hasn’t materialized yet.

So we’re left with these persisting problems: inflation, rising energy costs, and unrest between nations, all of it driving rates higher, which has been a bane for the real estate market.

Selling is as tough as it’s been in years. Right now, selling is harder than it’s been in probably the last 10 to 15 years. Selling isn’t a fun prospect at the moment, it’s just tough. That said, there are always caveats. Certain properties still sell very well, like homes on the water or a ranch with some acreage, unique places where there’s a niche of buyers who aren’t as affected by the market swings. But if you’re a builder putting up standard $400,000 to $500,000 homes in Hood County, Fort Worth, or Parker County, it’s not a great prospect right now.

Buyers, though, are in a good spot. On the buyer side, it’s a completely different story. Buyers are able to work out some really good deals and negotiate strong prices on homes. If you’re a buyer, this may be exactly the time to get in, while you can still work out a better deal. And when the Iran conflict does resolve, and rates start coming back down, you’ll likely see the market rebound very well.

So what do we keep an eye on? The key is getting that Iran conflict resolved. I don’t know how long it’ll take, but the sooner it happens, the better. If it resolves, I think bonds and rates really begin to come down, there’s less concern over inflation, and the Fed can be a little more aggressive about cutting rates. The market is poised to do very well once that happens. If it doesn’t resolve heading into fall, winter, and next spring, we’re likely looking at a bear market on the seller side for some time. That’s where we’re at today.

If you’ve got questions about what this means for your situation, we’re glad to help. Call or text us at 817-573-3174, email us at josh@hggrealty.com, or reach out through hggrealty.com. I’ll keep tracking this every month, so you’ll always know exactly where we stand.