What's Really Happening in the Granbury Housing Market

By Josh Shelton

Josh is the Broker/Owner of HGGR. He built this company to be a people-first business. He emphasizes open and constant communication channels to ensure each homeowner’s wishes and needs are heard and met to the best of his ability.

Ask around about the housing market right now, and you’ll get different answers depending on who you talk to. Some people are convinced it’s all doom and gloom and the whole thing’s crashing. Others, going off their social feeds, will tell you it’s booming, and you’d be crazy not to list your home tomorrow.

The truth sits somewhere in between.

There are real challenges out there right now, but genuine bright spots too. Let me give you a straight rundown of where things actually stand, both nationally and here in our North Texas Granbury market.

National news sets the tone, but local is king. The national picture matters, but national headlines aren’t always accurate for what’s happening in our own backyard. In real estate, what’s going on in Granbury, Weatherford, Fort Worth, Tolar, and Glen Rose can look very different from the national story.

The year started strong, then geopolitics changed the math. In 2026, interest rates began at three-year lows, and the market was really starting to warm up. Then, as HousingWire lays out in its look at how the housing market held up through the Iran conflict, that conflict pushed inflation back to the surface, raising concerns that the Fed might need to hike rates to fight it. The market didn’t respond as badly as many feared, but it did slow the growth we’d expected. Instead of the jump in sales that lower rates were poised to fuel, we saw fewer listings and fewer sales closing.

Oil dropped, but rates stayed stubbornly high. As the conflict moved toward resolution, oil prices fell hard. HousingWire’s piece on why oil crashed but mortgage rates kept rising captures what happened next: oil ran up to $111 a barrel, driving inflation and pushing the Fed from three rate cuts on the table to talk of one to three hikes. Oil has since fallen back to the low $70s, and lower still in recent days, yet mortgage rates haven’t followed. The bond market is pricing in possible future hikes, so rates stay elevated in anticipation rather than dropping with oil.

The silver lining is that banks have found their footing. In 2022 and 2023, the bank run on Silicon Valley Bank raised serious concerns about whether banks could handle a recession. Back then, a 10-year Treasury yielded around 4 to 4.4%, while mortgage rates were 7.5%, because the spread was so wide. Now that banks have steadied and the Fed’s stress tests found them resilient even in a severe recession scenario, those spreads have narrowed.

Today, a 10-year yield of around 4.5% translates to a mortgage rate closer to 6.5% than 7.5%. So even with all the volatility, rates have held relatively stable.

What does this mean for you? Right now, there’s a good bit of inventory, which means buyers can work out better deals than they could two to three years ago. Prices are softening, dropping roughly 1% to 3% this year. Nationally, things are more stable, but locally, a wave of new construction has added significant inventory, which has pushed prices down.

There’s even been an unusual twist: late last year, new-home prices dropped below existing-home prices, which we haven’t seen before. That trend has continued, pulling down existing-home prices, too, as sellers cut prices to compete with new builds.

Homes are still selling. If you want to sell, you need to be serious and priced right, because a home that won’t move usually comes down to a few fixable things. And if you’re a buyer, this is a good time to negotiate, because with this much inventory, sellers are competing with one another, and that works in your favor.

If you’d like a straight read on what your home is worth or what you can realistically get, I’d love to help. Call or text us at 817-573-3174, or email me at josh@hggrealty.com, and visit hggrealty.com.